Coinbase Q2 Earnings Preview — The 3 Lines That Move COIN

Subscription & services, USDC float income, and stablecoin take rate. The trading line is no longer the story.

COIN reports Q2 in early August. The trading-line headline will get the cable-news clip, but it is not the line the market is paying for. Three other lines move the stock.

First: subscription & services. Custody fees and earn revenue are now $300M+ a quarter and growing low double-digits sequentially. Second: USDC float income. Coinbase now keeps 100% of float interest on USDC held on its own platform.

Third: Base. The L2 generated $58M of sequencer revenue in Q1. If Q2 prints north of $80M with the new fee curve, that line alone is worth a multiple re-rate.